With it's release less than 24 hours away and projected sales in the millions it's impossible not to reflect on what it all means. You can say a lot about the Ipad; it has no Flash, no camera, bare device support and an awful name, but one thing you can't talk shit about is the depth of its potential and very likely impact. Here's a more reasonable take on some of the hype and myth surrounding the device.

No Flash - Why and What does it mean?

There is only one reason why Flash is not allowed on apple mobile devices. Market share. The iPhone and the soon to materialize iPad are "extra" devices. That is, they're not meant to be purchased by people who don't already have a computer. You need a computer to update their software, sync them, etc.. On the internet there are a lot of problems with browsers being incompatible with each other. You probably know about rendering issues and speed problems. Flash is the only ubiquitous web platform. It's cross platform and runs the same code identically across all kinds of devices and operating systems from smart phones to desktops to navigation and embedded systems, running every flavour of linux, windows, mac, etc.. The also soon to be released update Flash 10.1 will increase performance, both speed, cpu usage, memory, and more across all these devices; specifically taking in mind mobile. Flash powers more than 75% of the video on the web, 70% of the games, most of the portfolios, and most of the cool graphs, apps, and more, and is installed on more than 99.99% of all devices on the internet.

Apple wants a piece of that. They want their video codecs and their technologies to prosper. Flash is lightyears ahead of html and the only real way to build robust advanced web applications. HTML 5 adds some cool features but the spec is still incomplete and stuck in a deadlock. Building an HTML 5 application is very expensive and time consuming as every browser that supports HTML5 implements it very differently, and most browsers - or rather most internet users, do not, and will not have even a smidgen of HTML5 support for at least 2 years(read: Internet Explorer).

Aside from video codecs, Apple also knows that allowing Flash to exist on the iPhone/iPad would mean people could easily create web apps that work everywhere without paying Apple or filling up their app store. If Flash was allowed on the iDevices no one would pay hundreds of dollars to get into the app store, no one would pay thousands of dollars to train their developers to learn how to program in Objective-C simply to target a single device from a single company. And absolutely no one would put all that effort and money into building that app, knowing that there will be inevitable unpredictable delays, rejections, and removals from said app store for often no reason at all.

There are a ton of idiots proclaiming Apple doesn't allow Flash on their mobile devices because "Apple supports and open web". This quite simply isn't true. If HTML ever got advanced enough they would disallow HTML based web apps on their devices as well, in fact Apple is a major player in the HTML5 codec debate preventing the HTML5 spec from being finalized, so they've already started applying the brakes to HTML and openness. Adobe on the other hand keeps opening up their technologies and leading the open screen project, while open sourcing Flex, and releasing their formerly proprietary SWF format and AMF protocol. Apple has - and is notorious for creating, one of the most closed environments known to man. If they were a government the UN would have to intervene and if they had a monopoly they'd be in deep shit with the FTC for their anti-competitiveness. Does this mean the end of Flash? Absolutely not. In fact Adobe is about to announce that using the same tools and the same code you can easily convert Flash content and applications to iPhone/iPad applications with the click of a button, and if it's not too complex to Canvas based HTML5 code as well. Flash will remain the ubiquitous "code once run everywhere" platform. And quite frankly even in some parallel dimension where that wasn't true, ECMAScript is ECMAScript and Flash developers feel just as at home(although grossly underpowered) with Javascript as they do Actionscript.

What you will see change, although more so due to Adobe's Creative Suite 5 launch--which makes the process easier, than the iPad launch which will only slightly increases demand for it, is video services like YouTube, Daily Motion, and others who can afford to convert and maintain several formats of every video uploaded will begin creating several HTML5 versions of their players. So if you browse on most computers you'll see the Flash version, rich with Flash 10.1's many new features, but if you browse on an intentionally crippled device like the iPad it'll automatically be switched out for the compatible and feature stripped HTML5 version that works with your browser. Some huge sites that use Flash will also create alternative sites that are Flash-less, but at the same time those sites will have custom Adobe AIR apps built with Flex, and custom iPhone and Android apps built natively for those devices as well. Essentially more versions of the same product, just like how today there needs to be a separate stripped down version of websites for each version of Internet Explorer, which is also intentionally anti-competitive and incompatible with other browsers or web standards.

Adoption and Impact

The reason Apple can be so bold with Flash is because the iPad is an incredible revolutionary device. Most people struggle with computers to do anything. The desktop, laptop, and netbook paradigms are confusing and actually dealing with anything is an impossible feat to ask for the majority of users. There are a lot of people who should wait a few months for the bevy of tablets about to storm the market who have Flash, grant access to the full web and a full interface, set or ports, webcam, etc. But even I wish my grandparents would get one, because it's simple to use and understand. If someone can teach you to use a microwave, someone can teach you to use an iPad. This just isn't true for more traditional keyboard and mouse based devices - despite my sincerest efforts, most people just don't get it. It's too complex and too unnatural. If you don't have to get an iPad right now but you want one eventually, you might be wise to wait for the 2nd or 3rd version, which will no doubt have a forward facing webcam, be faster, and cooler as Apple tries to stay competitive with what is sure to be a lot of competition.

The point is that while it's not going to pull away a huge amount of market share in your website analytics, it will be a significant amount, and it will create a lot of change. Not just the iPad, but the wide array of tablets about to hit the market. The form factor will be significant, and all the big names will have alternative sites and apps to cater to not just touch screens, but no-flash environments, and small screens.