The internet is a buzz with talk of the downfall of Flash. Flash, the only web platform with 99%+ penetration rate cross platform, and 90%+ penetration rate for their latest version only 3 months after release. The platform that powers the web's content, games, and more than 75% of all interactive online media. That's now able to power desktop and mobile applications, and with the imminent release of Flash 10.1 which will bring with it much more efficient and lower memory/ram usage, lighter on cpu so much that it's able to play HD Youtube videos on a mobile phone without a problem. Yes, Flash, the downfall of Flash.
There are two main arguments to these ridiculous claims. The first is the emergence of HTML 5. HTML 5 finally allows video and audio playback without any plugins, and canvas - a tag which allows for complex drawing, embedding fonts, etc. etc. Things Flash has been able to do for years, has a huge head start on, and does really well. The problem that nobody seems to get is that not only does Internet Explorer still have majority market share, by a lot depending on who you ask - and Microsoft will NEVER support standards because it's directly bad for business. Aside from that, and the fact that every browser that will support HTML 5(ie: everyone else), will also implement it differently from each other, with different aesthetics, features, code, BUGS, etc. But even more crucial aside from those things, the HTML 5 spec itself is not even complete yet. It's not even finished, and it's not finished in a deadlock between the web giants who not only can't decide or agree on which video and audio formats are the best performance wise, but also who owns the rights to implement those formats in their browser and who'll have to pay massive royalties if the true patent/copyright holders agree to allow it at all at any point down the road. No one wants to properly look this up for a variety of reasons and so HTML 5 - supposed to bring the web together and herald a new dawn of the internet can only work if EVERYONE does in fact come together and implement it in exactly the same way; disregarding that ubiquitous HTML 5 means EVERYONE loses something, some everything. It benefits none of the powers that be to come together on HTML 5, the web is a magazine with some interaction. HTML will never push out Flash for web applications.
The other main argument is the Apple iPad - just announced. Which like the iPhone doesn't support HTML 5. Apple uses the old "Flash is too resource intensive" argument to convince you that limiting you from the full web is a good thing. The 75%+ of online media and interactive content and games you don't have access to from an iPad or iPhone or iPod. This simply isn't true. It's false. Both iPhone 3Gs and iPad could happily run the current version of Flash or Adobe AIR just like your laptop/desktop. And it's also entirely up to the developer and how they program how resource intensive they make their flash app/widget/game/etc. The only reason, listen up, the ONLY reason Apple does not support Flash, is because the Flash platform already powers so many games and useful tools and full blown applications on the internet it threatens Apple's very business model of the Itunes Store, and App Store. Apple wants companies to develop all their apps again specifically for the iPlatform and invest in it. If you made a Flash app that ran on the iPhone it would also run on Android and every other smart phone. If you invest in the iPlatform your app will only run on the iPlatform. If Apple was a monopoly the FTC would be pushing them down for their anti-competitive vindictive behaviour.
Apple doesn't block Flash support in their mobile products because they want to push innovation in HTML 5. If HTML 5 was advanced enough, or popular enough to be worth creating the caliber of applications possible on Flash, Apple would immediately configure mobile Safari to block, impede, and hinder the advancement of standards just like Microsoft with IE. In a heart beat. Apple promotes HTML 5 because they know it'll be years before it's anywhere close to where Flash is today, if ever. Apple is actually one of the powers that be preventing the HTML 5 standards from being finalized. Apple wants you locked into their platform. Apple doesn't care about advancing the web, or a better user experience, they care about the big media companies investing in their platform when they bring their content online. Apple wants the iPad to replace your tv, radio, and other media consumption devices. They do not care about the open web.
Adobe on the other hand continues to open up the Flash platform and benefits from creating a ubiquitous platform across desktop and mobile. There are fully open source versions of their Streaming and Application servers, and free and open source ways to develop for their platform. Anyone can build a Flash application, for the browser, desktop, Windows, Mac, Linux, Safari, Internet Explorer, Chrome, Firefox, Opera, etc. etc. Build one application and deploy everywhere using an incredibly powerful, scalable, and mature toolset. If you decide to invest in the Apple iPlatform, you may or may not after months of development time and costs even get your application onto a device, regardless you have to pay Apple to be a developer and submit it in the first place or even get access to their development tools, and they can remove your software from their platform and devices at a moments whim. They can and do literally remove your application from people's phones after being downloaded used without warning to backup the data put into or created by your app. Anytime for any reason. AND if you're lucky enough to get your application through all these extra months of hurdles and costs and lost revenue you're only gaining access to one small subset of mobile devices. Apple, if anything, has become the evil mind controlling overlords from their 1984 ad. Too pathetic to be ironic.
It is absolutely ridiculous to think the HTML 5 is going anywhere anytime soon, let alone even coming close to eclipsing Flash in any way. Not from Apple, they don't want anything to compete with their platform for getting applications on their devices - Flash or otherwise(HTML, Java, Silverlight), and not from anywhere else because it's just not mature, complete, or will over the next 12-24 months be implemented uniformly or consistently across browsers or operating systems. Even in the event that somehow somehow all these competitors will come together in blissful glee to reduce their own profit margins and upset shareholders in the name of benefiting the user and happy popcorn rainbows, it will still only have the capabilities of Flash 8-ish, by then Flash 11 will be out and there won't be a need for web browsers anymore because every site will have a dedicated Adobe AIR application front end and you'll use an Adobe AIR application to browse through a market place of Adobe AIR apps. Yes we're moving towards the cloud, and yes the cloud and desktop are becoming indistinguishable, but moving into the browser is only a temporary measure for some companies before they build a desktop front end for their service.
The iPad, iPhone, and iPod are merely secondary devices - frills. Every person with an iMobile device also has a desktop or laptop for work and actually managing their digital life. The iPlatform's position on Flash is exactly insignificant, and every single person I've seen raving for HTML 5 and the downfall of flash depends heavily on flash and its phenomenal capabilities. They're all idiots.
