The internet is a buzz with talk of the downfall of Flash. Flash, the only web platform with 99%+ penetration rate cross platform, and 90%+ penetration rate for their latest version only 3 months after release. The platform that powers the web's content, games, and more than 75% of all interactive online media. That's now able to power desktop and mobile applications, and with the imminent release of Flash 10.1 which will bring with it much more efficient and lower memory/ram usage, lighter on cpu so much that it's able to play HD Youtube videos on a mobile phone without a problem. Yes, Flash, the downfall of Flash.

There are two main arguments to these ridiculous claims. The first is the emergence of HTML 5. HTML 5 finally allows video and audio playback without any plugins, and canvas - a tag which allows for complex drawing, embedding fonts, etc. etc. Things Flash has been able to do for years, has a huge head start on, and does really well. The problem that nobody seems to get is that not only does Internet Explorer still have majority market share, by a lot depending on who you ask - and Microsoft will NEVER support standards because it's directly bad for business. Aside from that, and the fact that every browser that will support HTML 5(ie: everyone else), will also implement it differently from each other, with different aesthetics, features, code, BUGS, etc. But even more crucial aside from those things, the HTML 5 spec itself is not even complete yet. It's not even finished, and it's not finished in a deadlock between the web giants who not only can't decide or agree on which video and audio formats are the best performance wise, but also who owns the rights to implement those formats in their browser and who'll have to pay massive royalties if the true patent/copyright holders agree to allow it at all at any point down the road. No one wants to properly look this up for a variety of reasons and so HTML 5 - supposed to bring the web together and herald a new dawn of the internet can only work if EVERYONE does in fact come together and implement it in exactly the same way; disregarding that ubiquitous HTML 5 means EVERYONE loses something, some everything. It benefits none of the powers that be to come together on HTML 5, the web is a magazine with some interaction. HTML will never push out Flash for web applications.

The other main argument is the Apple iPad - just announced. Which like the iPhone doesn't support HTML 5. Apple uses the old "Flash is too resource intensive" argument to convince you that limiting you from the full web is a good thing. The 75%+ of online media and interactive content and games you don't have access to from an iPad or iPhone or iPod. This simply isn't true. It's false. Both iPhone 3Gs and iPad could happily run the current version of Flash or Adobe AIR just like your laptop/desktop. And it's also entirely up to the developer and how they program how resource intensive they make their flash app/widget/game/etc. The only reason, listen up, the ONLY reason Apple does not support Flash, is because the Flash platform already powers so many games and useful tools and full blown applications on the internet it threatens Apple's very business model of the Itunes Store, and App Store. Apple wants companies to develop all their apps again specifically for the iPlatform and invest in it. If you made a Flash app that ran on the iPhone it would also run on Android and every other smart phone. If you invest in the iPlatform your app will only run on the iPlatform. If Apple was a monopoly the FTC would be pushing them down for their anti-competitive vindictive behaviour.

Apple doesn't block Flash support in their mobile products because they want to push innovation in HTML 5. If HTML 5 was advanced enough, or popular enough to be worth creating the caliber of applications possible on Flash, Apple would immediately configure mobile Safari to block, impede, and hinder the advancement of standards just like Microsoft with IE. In a heart beat. Apple promotes HTML 5 because they know it'll be years before it's anywhere close to where Flash is today, if ever. Apple is actually one of the powers that be preventing the HTML 5 standards from being finalized. Apple wants you locked into their platform. Apple doesn't care about advancing the web, or a better user experience, they care about the big media companies investing in their platform when they bring their content online. Apple wants the iPad to replace your tv, radio, and other media consumption devices. They do not care about the open web.

Adobe on the other hand continues to open up the Flash platform and benefits from creating a ubiquitous platform across desktop and mobile. There are fully open source versions of their Streaming and Application servers, and free and open source ways to develop for their platform. Anyone can build a Flash application, for the browser, desktop, Windows, Mac, Linux, Safari, Internet Explorer, Chrome, Firefox, Opera, etc. etc. Build one application and deploy everywhere using an incredibly powerful, scalable, and mature toolset. If you decide to invest in the Apple iPlatform, you may or may not after months of development time and costs even get your application onto a device, regardless you have to pay Apple to be a developer and submit it in the first place or even get access to their development tools, and they can remove your software from their platform and devices at a moments whim. They can and do literally remove your application from people's phones after being downloaded used without warning to backup the data put into or created by your app. Anytime for any reason. AND if you're lucky enough to get your application through all these extra months of hurdles and costs and lost revenue you're only gaining access to one small subset of mobile devices. Apple, if anything, has become the evil mind controlling overlords from their 1984 ad. Too pathetic to be ironic.

It is absolutely ridiculous to think the HTML 5 is going anywhere anytime soon, let alone even coming close to eclipsing Flash in any way. Not from Apple, they don't want anything to compete with their platform for getting applications on their devices - Flash or otherwise(HTML, Java, Silverlight), and not from anywhere else because it's just not mature, complete, or will over the next 12-24 months be implemented uniformly or consistently across browsers or operating systems. Even in the event that somehow somehow all these competitors will come together in blissful glee to reduce their own profit margins and upset shareholders in the name of benefiting the user and happy popcorn rainbows, it will still only have the capabilities of Flash 8-ish, by then Flash 11 will be out and there won't be a need for web browsers anymore because every site will have a dedicated Adobe AIR application front end and you'll use an Adobe AIR application to browse through a market place of Adobe AIR apps. Yes we're moving towards the cloud, and yes the cloud and desktop are becoming indistinguishable, but moving into the browser is only a temporary measure for some companies before they build a desktop front end for their service.

The iPad, iPhone, and iPod are merely secondary devices - frills. Every person with an iMobile device also has a desktop or laptop for work and actually managing their digital life. The iPlatform's position on Flash is exactly insignificant, and every single person I've seen raving for HTML 5 and the downfall of flash depends heavily on flash and its phenomenal capabilities. They're all idiots.

Just a quick psa I've been asked to do from time to time, if you don't see the irony, you should call the government immediately. Now on with some stuff I feel like writing.

I've been critical of Microsoft pretty much any time I talk about them but it should be noted that they do produce a lot of really awesome stuff. It just so happens that I'm a programmer/web guy and Microsoft's web endeavours tend to be very shitty and politicky (see Bing, Windows Live, IE), so I talk a lot about that side of the company. I also really dislike Windows having used it for years and realizing and re-realizing that it's just an all round stale sandwich, and from what I've seen of Windows 7 they still can't seem to deliver a good OS. But with that said I do think some of their hardware stuff is incredible. Like the Xbox, Natal, Surface and their labs projects like Photososynth and Seadragon are wow.

What I'm trying to say here is Microsoft Courier. If you haven't seen it just do a video search and watch the demo. Why would anyone use an old school notepad and pencil when you could have a super intelligent dual screen tablet like that? No really I'm asking. And I read somewhere it'll hit the shelves soonish. It looks to me that this form factor at least, if not the Courier itself will become an essential home/business device. Like a toaster or printer.

The other thing is electric cars. If you go to BetterPlace.com you can find out all about this company that's figured out how to make 100% electric cars feasible now. They're starting out with smaller countries (namely Israel, Denmark, and others), they say they'll deploy the first cars around 2011 and go commercial in 2012. In two years there will be places that have fully electric, regular sized cars and more importantly the infrastructure of charging stations and battery swapping... stations, (for when you don't have time to charge the battery) to back it up. They've committed to having at least 100,000 cars on the road and in dealerships by 2016, and they currently have a range of about 170km on a full charge which when you add battery replacement stations - a process that takes about 2 minutes - could potentially be extended infinitely. Oh yeah I almost forgot instead of paying for electricity or new batteries you pay for miles/kilometres you drive, like a pre-paid cell phone.

I wrote yesterday about Light Peak, according to Engadget the specification was dictated [sic] to Intel by Apple who plan on putting it in a line of Macs as early as next fall. The plan eventually being that it will replace all other protocols (see USB, Firewire, DVI, Ethernet, eSATA) so if you've been waiting for USB 3.0 or core i7's in a Mac or you already have one in a PC and thought you were ahead of the curve, the game is about to completely change and you're probably gonna have to replace it all starting next year with new super fast stuff that uses optical connectors. You know, it would be nice if just once they waited till after todays new cool stuff was out and being used before teasing us with the next huge leap in technology. I guess it's more profitable to never actually satisfy the consumer.

Google is working on Google Chrome Frame, which is a plugin for Internet Explorer. Think of it like the Flash plugin, except instead of Flash, it gives IE the ability to read modern Javascript and HTML and even more importantly the ability to read Javascript without failing, throwing errors and the incompatibility that Internet Explorer innately has with all other browsers, code, and between versions of itself. Google Chrome Frame is a WebKit/V8 plugin - for browsers who's developers refuse to follow the standards. You can now easily prompt IE users to install the plugin and the page renders like it would in Chrome and Safari. It's still early on in the project, and requires XP SP2 or greater. I don't believe anyone still using Internet Explorer has the where with all to install a Service Pack, but if they did they'd also have upgraded at least from IE6 and yet there are still plenty of people stubbornly using it. I think Google Chrome Frame is ingenious, but doubt it will be the silver bullet needed to kill off IE. I'd like to see some accurate market research on browser/os share, who's using what and why. I believe people still using IE fall into two categories. Those that are ignorant, hate the web, or themselves; and those who are forced to by stuffy silly IT guys at work who outrageously believe that IE with all it's gaping unpatched security holes and incompatibilities is somehow a good choice for their IT environment. Also on the Google side is Google Analytics for Flex/Air applications. There's been workarounds for a while where you could bridge to Javascript from Flash to trigger Analytics events. Now you get some Actionscript tracking code and classes which you can call as part of your navigation/deeplinking procedures. Next step is to be able to index Flex/Air apps... hmm... Also from Google, I've stumbled across it before but if you haven't go have fun in their Code Playground Next up is Intel, who've developed a new technology to replace copper wires called Light Peak. Essentially Fibre Optics for the wires inside your computer, and possibly everywhere else. Capable of transmitting data at 10Gb/s (1.25GB/s) with future versions being capable of up to 100Gb/s (12.5GB/s). At those speeds you could copy the entire contents of a 1TB hard drive in under 2 minutes. Wow, pretty soon YouTube will be in Blue-Ray quality and Blue-Ray will go the way of VHS.. anyone surprised? Also Intel related are the new Core i7 chips that are slowly being rolled out. And the rumours surrounding Apple's October Special Event, where word on the street is they'll be unavailing Core i7/i5 chips across the board and price reductions to compete for the holiday season. If only they'd get better screens on the iMac... here's hoping. In the open source world I was introduced to FLARToolKit today. Augmented reality for Flex developers. The demos have you print out an image marker that the code looks for. You turn on your webcam and it calculates the 3D space based on the marker and superimposes a 3D animation that in real time follows the marker around rotating tittling and putting on a really impressive show. There was other stuff but I'm writing this when I should be coding, and I could have done without the 30 articles I just read too..