How the Internet is Changing Media, Software, and How We Use Computers
Tv is merging with the internet, most if not all the major networks now put their most popular shows online and they're even producing a ton of extra content like Larry King's podcasts, blog and facebook page, or The Office's webisodes, games, and character diaries. Websites like Netflix let you stream movies online, and new hardware lets you bring that content back to your tv. The lines between watching your favourite tv show on cable, iptv, website or mobile device are becoming increasingly blurred, but nevertheless tv and film are adapting and surviving just fine. Sure the internet as triggered a boom in pirating their content but most pirates are pirates out of convenience and once the infrastructure is fully in place and perfected it'll be much easier to visit NBC[or whoever]'s fast, persistant servers to watch the latest episode of your favourite show with a commercial or two thrown in, than it will be to hunt down a pirated version.
In a similar fashion software companies are having to completely rethink the way they do business. In addition to software pirates, there is a substantial push coming from Linux. With the emergence of the open source movement: free, community driven software that evolves fast, meets users' needs (most users), and is of the quality now days to directly compete with commercial software. Projects like OpenOffice and Ubuntu are becoming increasingly main stream, and with OpenOffice 3.0 and tomorrows release of Ubuntu 8.10 (which solves the networking, driver, SAMBA, application and OS installation, and ease of use that was previously holding the average user back) the choice for most between Windows, Mac and Linux will be an easy one.
In addition to open source, there is a growing movement to get desktop applications online. Adobe and Google are two of the main driving forces behind this movement. The focus isn't just about getting online, it's about going cross platform while integrating offline synchronization and online collaboration. Adobe is moving it forward with Flex with which they built the new Acrobat.com including buzzword and ConnectNow. These can be looked at as sort of a proof on concept now that they've announced they'll be creating an online version of Photoshop and after realizing that Adobe doesn't need a word processor. Currently the software giant builds their apps for Windows and Mac, but they could save 10's of millions in money if they only had to build one version and have it run seamlessly on Windows, Mac, and Linux and multiple versions too&mdashenter Adobe AIR. Adobe will likely move their apps online (not full featured) and have an ad driven revenue system, to keep up with the times and compliment their desktop counterparts as well as satisfy non-pro markets and then when the time is right and the technology is advanced enough move their products over to AIR. While Adobe is pushing the creative folks to an ad driven, online, open source, free to use way of life, Google is pushing the personal experience online; your photos, videos, diaries, business(maps), websites, email/chat, office(Google docs), networking, news, code, books, finance, subscriptions, marketing, time management, health, and more, letting you keep a record what you do, and even letting you do a lot of it offline letting it synchronize automatically when you connect compliments of Google Gears. Google is trying to squeeze your OS into a browser and now they're even building that too.
The state of the web is moving towards freedom and away from the traditional trappings and restrictions of big business and so is software. Initially most personal computers came with Windows, so that's what the majority of people became familiar with. Being the dominant OS most applications were written for Windows so that vendors could target the biggest audience. Recently Apple started using Intel chips and most high-end software has been ported to OSX and you can now run Windows simultaneously or independently of OSX. With everyone running the same apps and networking mac and windows becoming as simple as it has the majority of consumers still cling to Windows because of familiarity and cost but a few years after the release of XP people need an upgrade. Vista requires special hardware and a lot of people made and are making the switch to mac since they would already be getting new hardware to support Vista. As a result Apple is doing really well and Microsoft is having to give customers downgrade discs because Vista is such an embarrassment, people would rather use XP. Despite this Microsoft has announced that they'll be fading out XP over the next few months, and Windows 7(The next version after Vista) will be a big clunky Vista remake. For Microsoft Windows XP is still their top selling OS, even though they won't be selling it they plan on supporting it until 2014(13 years total since it's release). The fact that they're starting to crack down on pirates with the black screen of death and still pushing Windows Genuine Advantage demonstrates that they either want to keep XP's value in-case they have to fall back on it again if Windows 7 is a flop or that they're trying to inflate Vista's numbers buy cutting off XP a few months before they release Windows 7.
The next big shift in OS will be to Linux and the reasons are numerous. Over the next 2 years (at least) Microsoft will be offering a stable but dated XP and a bloated (slightly improved from Vista) Windows 7. Office 2008 (for Mac) is already superior to it's Windows counterpart and they're planning on taking the entire suite online to compete with Google Docs and ZOHO. Apple will still be offering their high-end, overpriced, frequently updated (and forgotten about) hardware and software and will likely remain the choice when it comes to high-end media creation. For the first time there will be a distinct branching between high-end power users, professionals who need lots of computing power and the most advanced apps for creating and editing rich creative content, and the average consumer who opts for low end hardware and pays nothing for software. The difference between an $18,000 Mac pro and a $200 HP loaded with Linux. As web applications and linux evolve the average consumer will want and need lighter and lighter hardware, their desktops will be on a thumbdrive, their mobile device, or online waiting for them to connect from anywhere. The focus will be on portability, networkability, and interfacing with peripherals. Run of the mill consumers won't need anything more, it's not gonna be about having the latest office or fastest computers like it used to, we're reaching the pinnacle of what the average person needs from a computer for now, and until we drastically change our concept of a pc and evolve new needs it seems this is where we're headed.
